When evaluating political policy it is rare for the media to consider two policies simultaneously even when they are obviously linked.
A good example of this is occurring In the run-up to #GE2017, during which the media have yet to make a connection between the following two policies offered by the Conservatives.
- Statutory one year leave from work to care for a family member
- Increase of the protection for social care costs to £100,000, with the inclusion of assets such as a home
These two policy have an obvious link when thinking about the process that people will undergo if falling into ill health in later life.
First some numbers
The % of homes valued at <£100k is 11.2. (2008 figures – data discontinued after this date)
Projected number of people in the UK with Dementia in the UK by 2025 is 1 million (This blog post ignores people who will need care for other reasons, so actual number of people requiring full time care will be higher.)
The number of care home places (2014) 200,200 private sector (86%), 17,600 voluntary sector and 18,300 NHS long term bed places. Or a total of 236100 places. In the current environment it can be assumed that the number of NHS and voluntary sector places will not increase.
Approximately 75% of those over the age of 65 own their own home
77% of people (Table 8) over the age of 65 have a net financial wealth of <£100,000. Let’s assume that these people are going to be able to afford care in their homes should the need arise.
Let’s also assume that the number of people who have a home somehow less than £100k in value are ok too.
So the number of people who can afford their dementia is 1,000,000 x 0.77 x 0.888 = 683,760
The above numbers indicate a potential shortfall of 447,660 places by 2050, assuming that all dementia sufferers need long term care.
The average cost of nursing care is £726 / week, or £37,752 per year.
So the proposed two policies make sense in conjunction, the Conservative view of the future is this:
A person contracts dementia, or some other condition needing long term care. Care places are unlikely to be available looking at the projected shortfall, in addition to the fact that 86% of places are in the private sector and with a massive increase in demand, prices will rise (likely to be significant)
Therefore the ailing patient will sell their home to pay for the costs. Even if this generates the money to cover the care, they will not have a place to go to and therefore they will move in with their middle-aged children, one of whom will give up their job to look after them. This is likely to be the female of a traditional partnership. The costs of the healthcare will be paid for out of the house price sale.
The policy works as long as the following conditions have been met
- The patient dies within a year.
- The patient had the foresight to have children with a spare room.