There is a commonly held belief, mostly among the Labour left that the 2019 election was catastrophically lost by Labour in large part to Jeremy Corbyn caving in to the right of his party to have a 2nd Referendum on Europe.
Part of a divisive argument that blames the right of the party.
There are several reasons as to why I don’t think this is the case, which any serious advocate of this view needs to address. In fact it is possible that taking up a Brexit position, without second vote, would have made the loss worse.
(This post ignores the ethics of pursuing a policy that is bad for the country just because it is a vote winner with people who don’t understand the ramifications of its implementation)
- Any position that Labour took in 2019 cannot be viewed in isolation. There were three years prior to 2019 where Labour argued against the Tory version of Brexit, culminating in the withdrawal agreement votes, where Labour heavily voted against. It is a leap of faith to imagine voters who wanted to Leave would trust a Labour party that arrived in Dec 2019 with a Brexit policy having obfuscated on it for 36 months.
- If Labour had actually supported Brexit in a way that meant anything to the electorate, then the withdrawal agreement would have gone through and we wouldn’t have had the 2019 election in the first place.
- The Tories owned all the electoral Brexit space. It was clear to eveyone in 2019 that the Tories were going to “Get Brexit Done”. In fact it was the only clear message about anything they presented in the election campaign. Labour’s Brexit position involved Brexit after some more negotiations (so it wouldn’t be the Tory brexit) That meant pitching “More negotiations” vs “Get Brexit Done”. How does anyone possibly think that was a winning formula?
- A lot of remainers (48% of electorate remember) voted Labour to have a stab at a second referendum. If Labour went Brexit only, all these voters would have likely moved to Lib Dem or Greens and Labour could have still lost the Leave seats with a less than “Get Brexit Done” policy and also lost seats in remain country (Bristol has 4 Labour MP’s – could easily have had none)
- Get Brexit Done was a great slogan appealing not only to the ardent leavers but also the sense of jaded despire that many felt. As in “Pull the tooth out”
In summary, Labour’s best bet to retain their leave seats and be competitive in an election would have been to support the Tory Brexit and then campaign on the differences, but that would also have meant they would be culpable when Brexit turned sour. It’s a hard life.
It is much more likely that Brexit was not the cause of Labour’s abject failure which was more likely attributable to a sustained campaign of media aggression against Jeremy Corbyn personally.
After all how many of us know someone who doesn’t like Jeremy Corbyn, but can’t tell you why.