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Immigration is a leading issue in the Brexit debate. There is one often cited effect of immigration .
Pressure on GP surgeries and appointments
Data on GP appointments across the time period from 1995 to 2008 is available
This study was based on data from 108 GP surgeries. An average of 8712 patients per surgery was recorded.
It was concluded that;
The average patient had 3.9 consultations each year in 1995 rising to 5.5 consultations each year by 2008.
This is a 41% increase.
The UK population at the start and end of the study period 1995-2008 was 58.019m and 61.807m respectively.
This is a 6.53% increase.
On the face of it the direct population increase does not appear to be responsible for the increase in demand, or the absence of available appointments. Unless that is the immigrant population use the GP surgeries more frequently then the “native” population.
A study looking at GP registration by immigrant populations shows low registration rates (32.5%) among immigrant populations. In addition the GP registration rate of the elderly (over 65), the age group most likely to use GP services was lower still (23.5%).
When citing immigration figures it is sometimes overlooked that the figures are often net immigration, which is made up of emmigration and immigration.
The values for emmigration and immigration for 2015 are as follows;
Out 297,000 In 630,000
If 32.6% of new arrivals sign up to a GP practise and the majority of emmigrants were registered at a GP the conclusion is that GP patient numbers are acutally falling. It would appear that the number registered with a GP would actually fall.
It may be concluded that the issue of immigration is not one of increased GP registration, but rather a lack of GP resgistration, whereby migrants not registered go instead to A+E resulting in pressures there.
During the period 2009-2014 the number of GP surgeries decreased by 408 (518 closed – 110 opened)
At an average of 8712 patients a practise (from the previously linked study) this represents 3.55m patients. Or an increase in population of 5.7% among remaining GP surgeries. This compares to a rise in population of about 3% over the same period.
The conclusion drawn is that while GP pressures due to increase population cannot be overlooked the prime mover behind pressures at the GP are increased visits per patient and GP closures.